Overview

The goal is to use the model to understand not only existing relationships in the data, but to predict future relationships as well. To this end, the model will be used to demonstrate the prediction of major pitching-arm injuries in various ways. 


 

Relative Risk of Major Injury

The graph below demonstrates an analysis of the relative risk of a major pitching-arm injury with respect to the average pitcher. Estimates can be done with respect to any hypothetical baseline pitcher.  Putting this in terms of an average across a total DVS Score, including all six factors, we can get results that can be summarized in the following plot.  This demonstrates the degree in which a pitcher's relative risk of major injury is related to their overall mechanical profile.  As the DVS Score increases, the relative risk of injury decreases.

 
 
 
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Median Time to Major Injury

Next is an analysis of the median time to major pitching-arm injury, given a certain starting point and a certain major pitching-arm injury history.  Predictions can be done for any given pitcher profile.  Putting this in terms of an average across the total DVS Score, including all six factors, we can get results that can be summarized in the following plot, with 500 innings pitched selected as the starting point and no history of major pitching injuries.  In this plot, the blue lines represent the 95% confidence limits of the median time to major injury by total DVS Score.  As the DVS Score increases, the median time to major injury increases.

 
 
 

Chance of Major Injury in next "X" number of innings.

Next is an analysis of the chance of major pitching-arm injury in the next x number of innings, given a certain starting point and a certain major pitching-arm injury history.  Predictions can be done for any given pitcher profile.  Putting this in terms of an average across the total DVS Score, including all six factors, we can get results that can be summarized in the following plot, with 500 innings pitched selected as the starting point, no history of major pitching injuries, and the timeline being the next 400 innings. The blue lines represent the 95% confidence limits of the chance of major pitching injury in the next 400 innings by total DVS Score. As the total DVS Score increases, the chance of injury in the next 400 innings decreases. 

 
 
 

Number of innings until Major Injury by Percent Chance.

Finally, this is an analysis of the number of innings until a major pitching-arm injury by percent chance, given a certain starting point and a certain major injury history.  This analysis gives the number of future innings associated with a certain chance of a major pitching-arm injury, in increments of ten percentage points.  Predictions can be done for any given pitcher profile.  Putting this in terms of an average across the total DVS Score, including all six factors, we can get results that can be summarized in the following plot for a pitcher with no prior history of major pitching injury and 500 innings pitched selected as the starting point.  As the total DVS Score increases, a pitcher can throw more innings for the same percent chance of a major pitching injury.  Put another way, the higher the total DVS Score, the better the pitcher's chance of having a long career.