DVS Analysis: 2016 MLB Draft Preview
Every year MLB Organizations gamble millions of dollars through the draft in hopes a pitcher may be able to help the success of their big league club. With our MLB Draft Preview articles, we hope to provide an additional layer of information as it pertains to the future value and injury risk of a pitcher. Last year, we released our initial MLB Draft Preview where we looked at the Top 50 pitchers in the 2015 class. The table below indicates that six of the initial Top 50 pitchers, have already undergone surgery leading up to the draft or had surgery within one year after the draft.
The average DVS Score of the pitchers above is 11.8. As a pitcher matures, his delivery pattern becomes more engrained facilitating a small window in fluctuation with age. The current baseball culture is promoting increased levels of travel baseball tournaments, velocity programs, personal instruction and heighten levels of stress to throw hard a younger age. With all the previous factors, we can assume a pitcher with a lower DVS Score will be exponentially more vulnerable to injury by the time he is draft eligible. If you are unfamiliar with what a DVS Score is, it's simply a numerical value placed on a pitcher's delivery that allows us to determine whether or not he is more or less at risk.
We recently performed a small case study on pitchers drafted in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft. We concluded, "46% of pitchers drafted in the 2012 First Round/Sup Round have spent time on the DL due to a throwing-related injury. Of the 46%, 23% have undergone surgery on their throwing shoulder or elbow." Our data indicates that almost 4 years later, nearly 1 out of every 5 pitchers drafted in the first round have had surgery on their throwing arm. Lets now look ahead to the 2016 Draft Class.
THE TOP 50
The 50 pitchers in the table below are ranked in order according to MLB.com's Top 100 Draft Prospects. Two pitchers were omitted from the results due to insufficient data.
Our 2016 class included 48 total pitchers; two were omitted. Of the 48 pitchers, 94% had a DVS Score of 15 or below and zero pitcher received a DVS Score of 20 or higher. What does this mean? Basically, this year's group doesn't feature many pitcher's that potentially project to have longer careers. The higher DVS Score indicates that a pitcher has the opportunity to extend the length of his career by accumulating more innings.
We will continue to research into previous drafts and document our findings.