Introducing the DVS Forecaster: Injury Prediction Software for Major League Baseball

By late summer, DVS will release an injury prediction tool to help Major League Baseball determine the current and long-term risk associated with signing a baseball pitcher. The tool, labeled as the DVS Forecaster, stems from years of statistical modeling, analysis, and research from the DVS Model. The DVS Forecaster is a web-based software application that will allow MLB Teams to choose a pitcher or groups of pitchers and see the corresponding statistical predictions. In addition, an MLB Team will have the ability to select the different time to injury scenarios, compare pitchers, and see the changes in statistical predictions if a pitcher improves their DVS Score (pitching mechanics). When comparing two pitchers, the DVS Forecaster is able to accurately predict the pitcher who will undergo a major pitching injury first 70.42% of the time.

In recent years, DVS has seen a dramatic increase in the rate of first major injury for pitchers born after 1990 compared to a pitcher born between 1980 and 1990.  The increased rate is due to several influential factors including youth training, velocity programs, and a cultural emphasis on velocity first and pitchabilty second. Although injury rates continue to increase and happen more frequently, history tells us that pitchers with higher DVS Scores will continue to get injured less frequently and have longer careers. Therefore, the DVS Forecaster and its ability to make real-time statistical predictions will become the controller for an organization to make value-based decisions on pitchers within their own organization and other MLB Organizations.

Pitchers born after 1990 have an average time to the first major throwing-related injury of only 327 innings, compared to 612 innings for pitchers born between 1980 and 1990 and 1086 innings for pitchers born between 1970 and 1980.
— -DVS Model Findings
 
 DVS Forecaster Main dashboard

DVS Forecaster Main dashboard

 

The DVS Forecaster and the use of its data and predictions will be made available through an annual software subscription license. Each team can choose from a variety of licensing options including whether they want their team specific pitchers or every pitcher that is currently pitching in the MLB season. After a licensing agreement between DVS and the respective team has been agreed upon, each team will be granted access to the DVS Forecaster with their specific licensed option. To test the software and functionality, a demo will be made available for MLB Teams.  

-DVS